North Texas vs Alabama 9/17/2011

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Alabama is a heavy favorite winning 100% of simulations over North Texas. AJ McCarron is averaging 182 passing yards and 1.9 TDs per simulation and Trent Richardson is projected for 101 rushing yards and a 92% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 0% of simulations where North Texas wins, Derek Thompson averages 0.4 TD passes vs 1 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.25 TDs to 0.92 interceptions. Lance Dunbar averages 127 rushing yards and 1.8 rushing TDs when North Texas wins and 103 yards and 0.26 TDs in losses. Alabama has a 40% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 100% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ALA -45.5

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